Market data September 3, 2026 · By Emilio

US Coffee Market Outlook, 2026-2030

The United States is the world's largest coffee market by value, and it is still growing. This brief sizes the market today, shows where the growth is coming from, and projects the next five years using the most current published research.

How big is the US coffee market?

Statista estimated US coffee revenue at $90.1 billion in 2025, combining at-home and out-of-home sales, with roasted coffee the largest segment at roughly $77 billion. A different lens, IBISWorld's coffee and snack shops industry, sizes that restaurant-led slice at about $75 billion in 2025 after years of steady growth. The honest take: the market is best described as a $75 to $90 billion opportunity depending on where you draw the line, and every measure agrees it is growing.

Long-run projections cluster around a 3.5% to 3.9% annual growth rate for packaged and in-home coffee: Research and Markets models 3.7% CAGR out to 2033, and IMARC models 3.5% to 3.9% across the same horizon. At a compounding rate around 3.8%, today's $90 billion market approaches $108 billion by 2030.

US coffee revenue, 2025 base through 2030

$ billions; 2030E modeled at ~3.8% CAGR (Research and Markets, IMARC)

90.1
2025
93.4
2026
96.9
2027
100.5
2028
104.3
2029
108.5
2030E

How much coffee does America drink?

Consumption is at a 20-year high. The National Coffee Association's Spring 2025 National Coffee Data Trends found 66% of US adults drink coffee every day, up nearly 7 percentage points since 2020, and past-week consumption sits around 73%. Daily drinkers average about three cups a day, and coffee now leads every purchased beverage, passing bottled water on the daily measure.

The direction of the growth matters as much as the size. Past-day specialty coffee consumption reached 46% of adults in 2025, a 14-year high that overtook traditional coffee (42%) for the first time on record. Coffee's share of US foodservice sits near 8% of the sector, making it the category anchor for an estimated 40,000+ coffee shops and thousands of restaurants and kiosks.

What grows fastest: the specialty lane

The specialty segment is the growth engine. Grand View Research sized US specialty coffee near $46.7 billion in 2024 and projects it to roughly $80 billion by 2030, a CAGR close to 9.6%, more than two and a half times the broader market's pace. Espresso-based drinks, the highest-velocity specialty format, climbed 17% among adults between 2020 and 2025.

For a company selling both the input (green coffee) and the finished premium product (roasted), this is the read: volume grows at a steady low single digits, while the premium end of the market compounds high single digits. Positioned on both, you are not betting on which one wins.

Sources

  • - National Coffee Association, Spring 2025 National Coffee Data Trends
  • - Statista, US coffee market topics
  • - Grand View Research, US specialty coffee market outlook
  • - IBISWorld, Coffee & Snack Shops in the US
  • - Research and Markets, US coffee market report
  • - World Coffee Portal, Project Cafe USA report on US store count
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